Political violence, within and across state boundaries, is driven by complex mechanisms and micro-dynamics that are closely intertwined with political, developmental and environmental processes operating at local, regional and global levels.
As a result, security policies must extend beyond military operations to include broader socio-economic and governance challenges. CISSM research examines the dynamics of sub-state conflict through a holistic, interdisciplinary approach. By analyzing how civil violence emerges, evolves and can be mitigated, the project seeks to support more effective strategies for conflict prevention, crisis response and post-conflict recovery.
By developing a richer understanding of the motives, resources and choices made by actors in contested social situations, CISSM researchers illuminate the causal dynamics of conflict to help policymakers foresee, prevent, mediate and respond to civil violence. Our research advances knowledge of the types of military, political and socio-economic interventions that can contribute to ending violence and creating durable social and political institutions to prevent recurrence.
More About the Project
CISSM researchers examine why some groups can sustain high levels of military capacity while others cannot, and how the organizational characteristics of successful insurgent groups impact ceasefires, peace-building processes and post-conflict governance. This work seeks to better characterize the range of political and military strategies employed by violent actors. In one recent project, CISSM research introduced a new framework to understand how insurgent organizations build military strength and the critical role of small-unit combat leaders. This research drew upon fieldwork and detailed case studies in Vietnam and Iraq.
Past CISSM research has assessed how the strength of civil society organizations in developing countries influences the onset of civil violence and evaluated the benefits and risks of funding civil society groups as a form of political intervention. It has also explored the micro dynamics of civil violence in Guatemala and Iraq and developed a complex systems model to explain why some peace operations reduce civil violence and others exacerbate it. In conjunction with the Complexity Solutions Lab, current projects focus on examining broader social structures and civilian dynamics that may fuel extremist violence or, alternatively, strengthen democratic resilience.
This work examines the complex interplay of political, economic, cultural and regional factors in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea. The region is the site of some of the world’s most intractable and devastating conflicts, as well as major geopolitical contestations between the US, China, Russia and a range of middle powers from the Middle East. It includes a book on Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa and two newer projects, one on post-succession state-building and the other on local responses to growing investment and military basing in and around the Red Sea.